There has been some suggestion that "even if O'Donnell wins the primary on Tuesday, she can't win November 2nd and Coons will be out next Senator". Well, why do we think that? The message from those who have so far controlled the dialouge is staggering. Here is their proof:
47% of the state is registered as Democrats
Barack Obama won DE in 2008, Joe Biden spend more than 30 years in office and Jack Markell was elected Governor
Ray Clatworthy and Charlie Copeland were not able to win seats as "conservatives"
Compelling evidence in these cases. There are of course, problems with the theories. If you delve into them, you will find a much different story than the narrative that local talk show hosts and political guru's might let on.
Registration Totals in Delaware are:
R - 182,796
D - 292,738
I - 146,212
Independents are breaking 3 to 1 for O'Donnell at this time but let's live under the assumption that she will only recieve 65% of the Independent vote (this would be a Progressive MIRACLE in 2010). You must also note another statistic often ignored by the pundits. Despite Delaware's Democrat leaning registration totals, in 2004 12% of Delaware Democrats went for Bush over Kerry and in 2008, despite the annointed one being at the top of the ticket, 9% of Democrats went for McCain. Historically, at least 9%-10% of Democrats vote for the Republican candidate regardless of ideological position.
In fact, when Joe Biden, Tom Carper and Mike Castle are out of the race, the edge goes to Republicans in Delaware. The 2010 election would be between Chris Coons, a Progresive Far-Left Democrat and O'Donnell who is a Conservative Republican. Over the years, Conservative Republicans (Bill Roth, Ronald Reagan, Pete DuPont) have won the day when they have run against those who are not one of the "Big Three".
So what would the numbers say if 65% of Independents and 10% of Democrats voted for O'Donnell? Assuming that every registered voter turned out (which won't happen) the numbers would be as follows:
307, 107 O'Donnell vs 300,017 Coons - O'Donnell wins
So what would the numbers say if 75% of Independents and 10% of Democrats voted for O'Donnell? Assuming that every registered voter turned out (which won't happen) the numbers would be as follows:
322,179 O'Donnell vs 300,017 Coons - O'Donnell wins
The key here is turnout. Which side will control the turnout? In 2008 the Democrats did. In 2010 Conservatives and Republicans control the day.
Great analysis.
ReplyDeleteO'Donnell has the momentum, she is a breath of fresh air in an otherwise corrupt political system. Being able to relate to the daily struggles of the working class, the elderly and the poor makes her a winning candidate in both elections.
ReplyDeleteThis is assuming that more Democrats don't turn out for Christine. I would say that 10% is conservative...if I had to guess, knowing this state the way I do, I'd say 15% + will turn for her.
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ReplyDeleteOf course she can. But our benevolent rulers don't want the voters in Delaware to know that. Mike Castle, who seems to be Delaware's Arlen Specter, loses on policy and issues. So, if they cannot convince people Christine is a lunatic, then they have to make voters believe a vote for Christine is a vote wasted. The desperation of Castle and the ruling class should make it evident that Christine can win.
ReplyDeleteA hurdle that I have run into in educating fellow conservatives to give her their vote to Christine is that most or afraid to vote for her based on her inexperience in local government. Since they know what to expect from Castle. I explain to them that I truly believe this is not an issue, that based on my knowing what she is made of is enough. But it is hard to convince others since they are basically afraid of 'wasting ' their vote. Anyone else run into that?
ReplyDeleteCan't is a self defeating prophecy one fights the fight to win the election. By staying both positive and on offense you are not only able to present your message but are in a position to be advocating rather than responding.
ReplyDeleteRather than placing doubts, place calls, hold signs and make it happen, those who fight win, those who moan mourn.
@Christy, I have some friends who claim to be conservative, yet they are afraid to vote for Christine because they think she can't beat Coons, and Coons would be worse than Castle. I am at a loss as to how to convince them. I've sent them this article with no effect.
ReplyDeleteI am an independent who generally leans to the ideals of the Democratic Party and if Christine were to win the GOP primary I should be elated because Chris Coons would be a sure winner for the senate. But as a Delaware resident I feel that we should have at least 2 qualified individuals compete for the senate seat so that we can evaluate each person for their merits and ideas. Christine is not in my opinion good for Delaware!
ReplyDeleteNormally I dislike negative campaign ads similar to what Castle is running but I know that some of what he is saying is true. I have a friend who for Christine O'Donnell's during her previous senate campaign. My friend left her regular job to work for on her campaign staff (with the intention of being paid for her services). Well, she was not compensated as agreed and now my friend is in financial ruin because Christine never paid her. In my opinion she is not a qualified individual to represent Delaware's interest.
i CANNOT seE WHY YOU PEOPLE WILL NOT OPEN YOUR EYES. iF SHE GETS ELECTED SHE TARS ALL THE OTHER LEGITIMATE CANDIDATES IN FLORIDE COLORADO ETC. Her campaign implied Rassmussen is on the RCC payroll for heavens sake. What does she do for a living? Can anyone tell us?
ReplyDeleteA remarkable analysis to assume that 100% of Republicans will vote for O'Donnell. What percentage of Republicans voted for Obama in 2008?
ReplyDeleteIt's really wishful thinking that independent voters will break for O'Donnell 65-35. Independents vote on personality (if they cared about ideology, they wouldn't be independent), and they're going to be scared off by O'Donnell's record. There's a reason that she's down in the polls 7 to 11 points to Coons.
Delaware is a very blue state. Any Republican running starts off 15 points down. Republicans will have better turnout this year, and that might make up the difference, but it's a longshot. The statistical models say that O'Donnell will win the primary, but the odds are 5 to 1 against her winning the general. Six weeks isn't much time to make up a 10-point deficit.
The choice is pretty simple. You can vote for a big government left winger that mused about being a Marxist while at Amherst (probably paid for by mommy and daddy) or you can vote for a real person that may have had some financial challenges who will adhere to small government conservative principles.
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