There has been some suggestion that "even if O'Donnell wins the primary on Tuesday, she can't win November 2nd and Coons will be out next Senator". Well, why do we think that? The message from those who have so far controlled the dialouge is staggering. Here is their proof:
47% of the state is registered as Democrats
Barack Obama won DE in 2008, Joe Biden spend more than 30 years in office and Jack Markell was elected Governor
Ray Clatworthy and Charlie Copeland were not able to win seats as "conservatives"
Compelling evidence in these cases. There are of course, problems with the theories. If you delve into them, you will find a much different story than the narrative that local talk show hosts and political guru's might let on.
Registration Totals in Delaware are:
R - 182,796
D - 292,738
I - 146,212
Independents are breaking 3 to 1 for O'Donnell at this time but let's live under the assumption that she will only recieve 65% of the Independent vote (this would be a Progressive MIRACLE in 2010). You must also note another statistic often ignored by the pundits. Despite Delaware's Democrat leaning registration totals, in 2004 12% of Delaware Democrats went for Bush over Kerry and in 2008, despite the annointed one being at the top of the ticket, 9% of Democrats went for McCain. Historically, at least 9%-10% of Democrats vote for the Republican candidate regardless of ideological position.
In fact, when Joe Biden, Tom Carper and Mike Castle are out of the race, the edge goes to Republicans in Delaware. The 2010 election would be between Chris Coons, a Progresive Far-Left Democrat and O'Donnell who is a Conservative Republican. Over the years, Conservative Republicans (Bill Roth, Ronald Reagan, Pete DuPont) have won the day when they have run against those who are not one of the "Big Three".
So what would the numbers say if 65% of Independents and 10% of Democrats voted for O'Donnell? Assuming that every registered voter turned out (which won't happen) the numbers would be as follows:
307, 107 O'Donnell vs 300,017 Coons - O'Donnell wins
So what would the numbers say if 75% of Independents and 10% of Democrats voted for O'Donnell? Assuming that every registered voter turned out (which won't happen) the numbers would be as follows:
322,179 O'Donnell vs 300,017 Coons - O'Donnell wins
The key here is turnout. Which side will control the turnout? In 2008 the Democrats did. In 2010 Conservatives and Republicans control the day.